The Dow Jones plunged almost 1,600 points
on February 5, a steep drop of 4.6 percent that was largely mirrored by other
global markets. While this was not the biggest sell-off in history like some
commentators suggested, it was one of the largest in many years. Despite
trillions of dollars being wiped from the markets over the course of the week,
Wall Street has managed to dust itself off since then and start the long climb
back into positive territory. Wall Street managed 4 percent growth last week
alone, leaving its total losses from the meltdown at about 7 percent.
In order to comprehend the nature and
magnitude of this huge market correction, it's important to understand what the
catalyst was for such strong movement. The sell-off was largely due to a sudden
spike in US wages growth, which justified existing fears that inflation might
be about to take off. If inflation does rise at a faster rate than expected,
interest rates are also likely to gather more momentum. Even if the growth in
wages was skewed by seasonal factors like some people suggest, the pervasive fear
that drove the markets into meltdown was very real and can't be ignored.
The future for the markets will depend
greatly on what happens next. While inflation figures released since February 5
largely confirmed investors' fears, it seems the market had already factored
this in - at least for now. Instead of dropping further, Wall Street and other
global markets have resumed the optimistic growth pattern that has defined the
last few years and the US dollar has even gone into reverse. The fear, however,
is that this growth can't continue, that it's unsustainable, that eventually -
the markets will listen to the cold hard numbers and volatility will return.
Interest rates in the United States will
have a huge impact on global markets this year, with rising rates increasing
borrowing costs across the globe for the first time in many years. The US
Federal Reserve has also announced plans to begin reversing its money printing
program called Quantitative Easing, withdrawing cash that was put into the
system after the Global Financial Crisis. While this is a long process that
will probably take decades rather than years, adjustment is never easy and
change often leads to volatility. With markets already dealing with a new
inflation environment and interest rate hikes on the horizon, it looks like the
bumpy ride isn't over yet.
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